“反思对俄政策”！美国百余名人士联名公开信 | 岱岱

美国《政治》杂志发表的关于美俄关系的公开信

由百余名退休的美国政界学界人士

联名刊出

It’s Time to Rethink Our Russia Policy

是时候重新考虑我们的俄罗斯政策了

U.S.-Russia relations are at a dangerous dead end that threatens the U.S. national interest. The risk of a military confrontation that could go nuclear is again real. We are drifting toward a fraught nuclear arms race, with our foreign-policy arsenal reduced mainly to reactions, sanctions, public shaming and congressional resolutions. The global Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting serious worldwide economic decline, rather than fostering cooperation, have only reinforced the current downward trajectory.

美俄关系正处于危险的死胡同，这种情况威胁到美国的国家利益。军事对抗演变成核战争的危险再次成为现实。我们正逐渐走向一场令人担忧的核军备竞赛，我们的外交政策选项沦为了反应、制裁、公开羞辱和国会决议。全球冠状病毒流感大流行以及由此导致的全球经济严重衰退，非但没有促进合作，反而强化了目前的下行轨迹。

Meanwhile, the great challenges to peace and our well-being that demand U.S.-Russia cooperation, including the existential threats of nuclear war and climate change, go unattended. Because the stakes are so high, both in the dangers they entail and the costs they contain, we believe that a careful, dispassionate analysis and change of our current course are imperative.

与此同时，对世界和平和国家福祉的巨大挑战需要美俄合作来共同面对，包括核战争和气候变化在内的一系列现实威胁现在却无人理会。现行对俄政策的风险如此之大，带来了巨大的危险，包含了巨大的代价，因此我们认为必须认真、冷静地分析和改变目前的方针。

We go into this open-eyed. Russia complicates, even thwarts, our actions, especially along its extended periphery in Europe and Asia. It has seized territory in Ukraine and Georgia. It challenges our role as a global leader and the world order we helped build. It interferes in our domestic politics to exacerbate divisions and tarnish our democratic reputation. At best, our relations will remain a mix of competition and cooperation. The policy challenge will be to strike the most beneficial and safest balance between the two. To this end, we offer six broad prescriptions for U.S. policy.

睁大眼睛好好看看。俄罗斯使我们的行动复杂化，甚至遭到挫败，特别是在欧洲和亚洲的俄罗斯周边国家。它占领了乌克兰和格鲁吉亚的领土。它挑战了我们作为全球领导者的角色和我们帮助建立的世界秩序。它干涉我们的国内政治，加剧分歧，玷污我们的民主声誉。我们的关系充其量不过是竞争与合作的混合体。政策上的挑战是如何在这两者之间达成最有益和最安全的平衡。为此，我们为美国的对俄政策提供六大处方。

We must first find a way to deal effectively with Russian interference in U.S. elections and, most important, block any effort to corrupt the voting process. Hardening our electoral infrastructure, sanctioning Russians who weaponize stolen information and countering Russia’s capacity to hack our systems are all necessary measures. So is exposing Russian disinformation. We must, however, also engage Russia through negotiations out of the public glare, focused on each side’s capabilities to do great damage to the other side’s critical infrastructure.

一、我们必须首先找到一种方法，有效地处理俄罗斯对美国选举的干预，最重要的是，阻止任何破坏投票过程的努力。要加强我们的选举基础设施，制裁将窃取信息武器化的俄罗斯人，以及打击俄罗斯入侵我们系统的能力，这些都是必要的措施。揭露俄罗斯的造谣也是如此。然而，我们也必须在公众的注视下，通过谈判与俄罗斯接触，关注双方对对方关键基础设施造成重大破坏的能力。

• It makes no sense for two countries with the power to destroy each other and, in 30 minutes, to end civilization as we know it to lack fully functioning diplomatic relations. In the wake of the Ukrainian crisis, key governmental contacts were severed, consulates shuttered and embassy staff drastically reduced. Too often we wrongly consider diplomatic contacts as a reward for good behavior, but they are about promoting our interests and delivering tough messages. We need them as a matter of essential security to minimize the misperceptions and miscalculations that can lead to unwanted war. Restoring normal diplomatic contacts should be a top priority for the White House and supported by the Congress.

两个有能力相互毁灭并在30分钟内结束已知人类文明的国家，却缺乏可以充分运作的外交关系，这是一件十分可笑的事。在乌克兰危机之后，主要的政府联系被切断，领事馆被关闭，大使馆工作人员大幅减少。我们经常错误地认为外交接触是对良好行为的奖励，但其实外交接触是为了促进我们的利益和传递强硬的信息。我们需要保持外交接触作为解决安全问题的基础，以尽量减少可能导致不必要战争的误解和误判。恢复正常的对俄罗斯外交接触应该是白宫的首要任务，并应该得到国会的支持。

• Our strategic posture should be that which served us well during the Cold War: a balanced commitment to deterrence and détente. Thus, while maintaining our defense, we should also engage Russia in a serious and sustained strategic dialogue that addresses the deeper sources of mistrust and hostility and at the same time focuses on the large and urgent security challenges facing both countries:

我们的战略姿态应该延续冷战期间使我们处于上风的战略姿态：在威慑和缓和中寻求平衡。因此，在保持国防实力的同时，我们还应与俄罗斯进行严肃和持续的战略对话，以消除深层次的不信任和敌对情绪，同时关注两国共同面临的重大和紧迫的安全挑战：

The imperative to restore U.S.-Russian leadership in managing a nuclear world made more dangerous by destabilizing technologies, shifting attitudes toward the use of nuclear weapons, discarded nuclear agreements and new tension-filled nuclear relationships. That means extending the New START Treaty and swiftly moving to a next phase of arms control to strengthen nuclear stability, carefully adjusted to a world of multiple nuclear actors.

恢复美俄在全球核事务方面的领导地位。这一点非常必要。由于核技术扩散、对核武器使用态度的转变、废弃核协议、充满紧张的核力量对抗，这个世界正在变得越来越危险。要实现美俄在核领域的合作，意味着要延长新的《削减战略武器条约》，并迅速进入下一阶段的军备控制，以加强全球核稳定，并根据出现更多核玩家的情况对全球军备控制体系进行仔细调整。（加强核武器领域合作，确保美俄两强局面，共同压制第三方）

The imperative to make safer and more stable the military standoff that cuts across Europe’s most unstable regions, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, working vigorously to preserve existing constraints, such as the Open Skies Treaty—now under challenge—and the Vienna Document 2011, and creating new confidence-building measures.

当务之急是使从波罗的海到黑海的整个欧洲最不稳定地区的军事对峙缓和和稳定下来，努力维护现有的安全保障机制，如正在面临挑战的《开放天空条约》和2011年版《维也纳公约》，并制定新的建立互信措施。（暗示停止北约继续东扩，尊重俄罗斯的利益范围）

•  The success of U.S.-China policy will in no small measure depend on whether the state of U.S.-Russia relations permits three-way cooperation on critical issues. Our current policies reinforce Russia’s readiness to align with the least constructive aspects of China’s U.S. policy. Moving the needle in the opposite direction will not be easy, but should be our objective.

美国对中国的政策是否能成功，在很大程度上取决于美俄关系的状况是否允许在关键问题上进行三方合作。我们目前的政策，正在迫使俄罗斯准备与中国在对美政策中最不具建设性的方面保持一致。把针往相反的方向拨动并不容易，但这应该是我们的目标。（明确指出应该联俄制中）

• On salient issues where U.S. and Russian interests are in genuine conflict, such as Ukraine and Syria, the U.S. should remain firm on principles shared with our allies and critical to a fair outcome. More attention, however, should be paid to the cumulative effect that measured and phased steps forward can have on the overall relationship, and in turn the opportunity an improving relationship creates for further steps forward.

在美国和俄罗斯利益存在真正冲突的突出问题上，如乌克兰和叙利亚问题，美国应继续保持与盟国一致的坚定立场，这对实现公正的结果至关重要。但是，我们也应该更多地注意到，采取一些经过仔细衡量的分阶段向前迈进的步骤，会对美俄关系逐渐产生整体上的积极影响。而改善关系又会为双方关系进一步向前迈进创造新的机会。（潜台词：可以暂时搁置争议，实质上出卖乌克兰及其他盟友的利益来逐步拉拢俄罗斯）

While sanctions should be a part of our Russia policy, they should be judiciously targeted and used in conjunction with other elements of national power, especially diplomacy. The steady accumulation of congressionally mandated sanctions as punishment for Russian actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the poisoning in Salisbury, violations of the INF treaty and election meddling reduces any incentive Moscow might have to change course since it considers those sanctions permanent.

虽然制裁应该是对俄罗斯政策的一部分，但制裁应该有明智的目标，并与其他国家力量，特别是外交力量结合使用。作为对俄罗斯在克里米亚和乌克兰东部行动的惩罚，以及对索尔兹伯里中毒事件、违反《中导条约》、对美国选举的干预等事件的反应，国会授权的对俄罗斯制裁不断累积。这使得俄罗斯感到，美国对其制裁将是永久性的，从而失去了改善美俄关系的兴趣。

We need to restore flexibility to our sanctions regime, focusing on targeted sanctions that can be eased quickly in exchange for Russian steps that advance negotiations toward acceptable resolutions of outstanding conflicts, including a demonstrable Russian effort to cease interference in our electoral process. Doing so will require political will on the part of both the White House and the Congress.

我们需要恢复制裁制度的灵活性，把重点放在可以迅速终止的有针对性的制裁上，以换取俄罗斯采取步骤推动谈判来解决悬而未决的冲突。其中包括俄罗斯为停止干涉我们的选举进程所作的明显努力。这样做需要白宫的政治意愿和意志。（放松对俄罗斯的各项制裁）

Ultimately, the reality is that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, operates within a strategic framework deeply rooted in nationalist traditions that resonate with elites and the public alike. An eventual successor, even one more democratically inclined, will likely operate within this same framework.

归根结底，现实是在弗拉基米尔·普京的领导下，俄罗斯正在一个植根于民族主义传统的战略框架内运作，而民族主义传统又能引起精英和公众的共鸣。普京最终的继任者，即使是更倾向于民主的继任者，也可能在同样的框架内统治。

Premising U.S. policy on the assumption that we can and must change that framework is misguided. Likewise, we would be unwise to think that we have no choice but to stick with current policy. We must deal with Russia as it is, not as we wish it to be, fully utilizing our strengths but open to diplomacy. So focused, we can both cope with the challenge that Russia poses and strive to put the relationship on a more constructive path. Failure to do so carries too high a price.

当前美国对俄罗斯政策的前提是我们能够而且必须改变这一框架，这是错误的。同样，如果我们认为自己别无选择，只能坚持现行政策，这也是不明智的。我们必须更现实主义的态度与俄罗斯打交道。要充分利用我们的优势，也要对外交持开放态度。如果能够专注于此，我们既能应对俄罗斯提出的挑战，又能努力使两国关系走上更具建设性的道路。如果我们失败了，将付出高昂的代价。